Jessica Pegula vs Coco GauffWimbledon Quarter-final

Wimbledon · WTA · Quarter-final
#3WTA
2097ELO
1903Grass ELO
$3.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLWWWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 7 July 2026 ·
grass
Centre Court · 1st on
#4WTA
2071ELO
1823Grass ELO
$4.1MYTD
$34MCAREER
22 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWWLWWW
Pegula J.
6-4 3-6 3-6
Gauff C.
Pegula J.
6331
Gauff C.
4662

Coco Gauff advanced to the semifinals of Wimbledon by defeating Jessica Pegula in the quarterfinals. The match ended with a score of 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 in favor of Gauff. Gauff converted all her break points and won five service breaks to Pegula's three.

Around the match

  • Playing someone like Bencic on grass is not sometimes the best matchup for me. Super flat hitter. The grass just enhances it more. I think it definitely gives me confidence knowing I can.

    Gauff C.WTA Tennis
  • Before the match, they told both of us at 11:00, da-da-da, the whole spiel. Then we started the third set at 10:05. I did not want to come out here tomorrow. I was just trying to get up a break and stay up a break.

    Gauff C.WTA Tennis
  • She stepped up on pressure points really well. When she needed to lock in and just not miss a ball, that's what she did. But that's vintage Coco.

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

63
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsRRhardJessica Pegula6-3 6-7 6-2
2025-10-06WuhanFhardCoco Gauff6-4 7-5
2024-11-04Riyadh FinalsRRhardCoco Gauff6-3 6-2
2024-06-17BerlinSFgrassJessica Pegula7-5 7-6
2023-11-04WTA FinalsSFhardJessica Pegula6-2 6-1
2023-10-30Cancun FinalsSFhardJessica Pegula6-2 6-1
2023-08-07MontrealQFhardJessica Pegula6-2 5-7 7-5
2023-06-26EastbourneQFgrassCoco Gauff6-3 6-3
2022-02-14DubaiR32hardJessica Pegula6-4 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
41%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
58%
Return points won·Even
46%
48%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.4
2.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.5
5.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 41). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
93
94
Break points saved·Slight edge
86
81
Break points won·Even
99
100
Deciding sets·Even
99
99
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
91
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Pegula J.70%
Gauff C.30%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Pegula J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.0+81 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Grass Elo 1823
5.3Overall Elo 2097
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 2071
7.0Leads 1–0 on grass
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on grass
8.38 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.56 of last 10 on grass
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
5.7Won 61% in United Kingdom (23)
Country comfort
6.2Won 70% in United Kingdom (27)
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
81
64

Pegula J.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Gauff C.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
30°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 25%

Draw