Madison Keys vs Linda Noskova — Wimbledon Round of 16

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 16
Madison Keys
USA26
Madison Keys
#24WTA
1987ELO
1843Grass ELO
$1.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLWWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Monday, 6 July 2026 ·
grass
No.1 Court · 2nd on
Linda Noskova
CZE9
Linda Noskova
#8WTA
1976ELO
1844Grass ELO
$6.2MYTD
$11MCAREER
21 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWWW
Keys M.
4-6 6-7
Noskova L.
Keys M.
460
Noskova L.
672

Linda Noskova defeated Madison Keys in the Round of 16 at Wimbledon, advancing with a 6-4, 7-6 victory on the grass courts. Noskova converted all four of her break points, compared to Keys' one conversion in six chances. Noskova won two service breaks to Keys' one.

Around the match

  • “It's actually my first time on this court ever. After that first set, I really just tried to dig deep because I didn't want my first time to end that way. I wanted to, at the very least, try to get myself back in the match and make it competitive.”

    Keys M.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “This was such a tough match. All the ups and downs. Sorana, she's a hell of a fighter. We've had a lot of matches now and none of them were easy, so I was expecting a tough battle like this. But yeah, I'm so, so happy.”

    Noskova L.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “It's something incredible just to go down the history and see all these amazing players. Obviously it would be such an achievement for our country, for our small country.”

    Noskova L.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Keys M.Noskova L.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
49%
Service points won·Even
61%
63%
Return points won·Even
45%
41%
Break points saved·Even
65%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.8
6.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.5
5.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Keys M.Noskova L.
Clutch Rating·Even
89
91
Break points saved·Even
85
86
Break points won·Even
92
89
Deciding sets·Even
94
94
Tiebreaks·Even
96
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Keys M.32%
Noskova L.68%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Noskova L. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Keys M.
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Noskova L.
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.0Grass Elo 1793
Surface ELO
6.0+82 Grass Elo edge
4.6Overall Elo 1967
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1996
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
9.39 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
8.99 of last 10 on grass
10.08-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
6.6Won 77% in United Kingdom (62)
Country comfort
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Keys M.Noskova L.
Freshness·Slight edge
66
75

Keys M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 67 games (7d) · Noskova L.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 56 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
32°CClear
Wind 23 km/hHumidity 18%

Draw