Juan Pablo Varillas vs Bruno FernandezBogota Round of 32

Bogota · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#236ATP
1440ELO
1431Clay ELO
30 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 7 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT 1 · 4th on
#651ATP
1149ELO
1139Clay ELO
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWL
Varillas J.
2-6 6-3 6-4
Fernandez B.
Varillas J.
2662
Fernandez B.
6341

Juan Pablo Varillas defeated Bruno Fernandez in the Round of 32 at the Bogota clay court tournament. Varillas won the match 2-6, 6-3, 6-4, overcoming an initial set loss. He converted 75% of his break points, compared to Fernandez's 21%, and the players each won three service breaks.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
46%
Service points won·Even
60%
57%
Return points won·Even
42%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
53%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.7
1.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.5
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC
Varillas J.80%
Fernandez B.20%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Varillas J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.4+274 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.6Clay Elo 1157
8.4Overall Elo 1440
ELO gap
1.6Overall Elo 1166
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.44 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
2.13 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 7
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
100

Varillas J.: 19 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
18°CPartly cloudy
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 59%

Draw