Luca Potenza vs Pietro FellinTrieste Qualifying Final

Trieste · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final
#482ATP
1342ELO
1297Clay ELO
26 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWWLLW
1 — 2
Sets
Monday, 6 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 2nd on
#539ATP
1322ELO
1245Clay ELO
25 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWWWWW
Potenza L.
3-6 6-1 5-7
Fellin P.
Potenza L.
3651
Fellin P.
6172

Pietro Fellin won the final of the Trieste tournament, defeating Luca Potenza 6-3, 1-6, 7-5. Fellin hit one ace and zero double faults, while Potenza had three aces and four double faults. Fellin converted 9% of break points and broke Potenza's serve once, compared to Potenza's two service breaks and 17% break point conversion rate.

Key context

  • Match story: Pietro Fellin closed it out in three sets, 6–3 1–6 7–5.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
49%
Service points won·Even
57%
60%
Return points won·Even
40%
41%
Break points saved·Even
55%
57%
Aces / match·Even
2.0
2.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.8
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (10 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Potenza L.65%
Fellin P.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Potenza L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.8+62 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.2Clay Elo 1245
5.4Overall Elo 1352
ELO gap
4.6Overall Elo 1322
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.15 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
89

Fellin P.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
29°CPartly cloudy
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 48%

Draw