Yosuke Watanuki vs Braden Shick — Cary Semi-final

Cary · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
Yosuke Watanuki
JPN
Yosuke Watanuki
#416ATP
1541ELO
1531Hard ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWWLLL
—
Sets
Walkover
Sunday, 5 July 2026 ·
hard
STADIUM · 1st on
USA
Braden Shick
#219ATP
1385ELO
1358Hard ELO
22 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLLWWW
Watanuki Y.
vs
Shick B.

Braden Shick advanced to the finals of the Cary tournament after Yosuke Watanuki withdrew before their semifinal match, resulting in a walkover victory for Shick. As a result, no statistics were recorded for the match. Shick will move on to play in the final.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Watanuki Y.Shick B.
1st serve in·Even
52%
54%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
48%
Service points won·Even
59%
60%
Return points won·Even
38%
41%
Break points saved·Clear edge
48%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.6
3.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.0
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Watanuki Y.72%
Shick B.28%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Watanuki Y. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Watanuki Y.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Shick B.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.2+178 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.8Hard Elo 1358
7.1Overall Elo 1552
ELO gap
2.9Overall Elo 1384
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.86 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.99 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Watanuki Y.Shick B.
Freshness·Even
100
100

Watanuki Y.: 21 days rest · Shick B.: 20 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
37°CClear
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 31%

Draw