Jannik Sinner vs Shintaro Mochizuki — Wimbledon Round of 16

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 16
Jannik Sinner
ITA1
Jannik Sinner
#1ATP
2320ELO
2088Grass ELO
$6.9MYTD
$65MCAREER
25 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWLWW
3 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 5 July 2026 ·
grass
Centre Court · 3rd on
Shintaro Mochizuki
JPN
Shintaro Mochizuki
#112ATP
1475ELO
1520Grass ELO
$243kYTD
$1.6MCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLWWWW
Sinner J.
6-3 7-6 6-3
Mochizuki S.
Sinner J.
6763
Mochizuki S.
3630

Jannik Sinner defeated Shintaro Mochizuki in the Round of 16 at Wimbledon, winning in straight sets 6-3, 7-6, 6-3. Sinner hit 15 aces to Mochizuki's 4 and converted 33% of his break points, while Mochizuki did not convert any. Sinner won 82% of his first-serve points to Mochizuki's 74%, and he secured 4 service breaks to Mochizuki's 0.

Around the match

  • “First time we played, I didn't know what to expect. I tried to handle certain situations slightly better than him. But he's an incredible player. He should be proud of himself.”

    Sinner J.tennismajors.com ↗

  • “It's very tricky to face him – on this surface his game suits it very, very well. I tried to stay a bit more aggressive. I'm still very happy about today.”

    Sinner J.tennismajors.com ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Jannik Sinner closed it out in three sets, 6–3 7–6 6–3.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Sinner J.Mochizuki S.
1st serve in·Clear edge
65%
51%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
81%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
58%
47%
Service points won·Clear edge
73%
58%
Return points won·Even
40%
40%
Break points saved·Clear edge
69%
57%
Aces / match·Dominant
10.4
3.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.6
5.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Sinner J.Mochizuki S.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
99
25
Break points saved·Dominant
100
60
Break points won·Dominant
99
68
Deciding sets·Dominant
100
5
Tiebreaks·Dominant
100
57

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Sinner J.95%
Mochizuki S.5%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Sinner J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sinner J.
8.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Mochizuki S.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
10.0+563 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Grass Elo 1525
10.0Overall Elo 2320
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1485
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
10.010 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
8.68 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
9.06-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.05 three-setters in 14 days
6.8Won 80% in United Kingdom (30)
Country comfort
Context
Defending pts
6.0Reached final qualifying here last year
2.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Sinner J.Mochizuki S.
Freshness·
—
93

Mochizuki S.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
28°COvercast
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 38%

Draw