Jessica Pegula vs Iva JovicWimbledon Round of 16

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 16
#3WTA
2097ELO
1903Grass ELO
$3.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWLWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 5 July 2026 ·
grass
No.1 Court · 1st on
#16WTA
1906ELO
1798Grass ELO
$1.7MYTD
$2.8MCAREER
18 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWWLW
Pegula J.
4-6 6-3 6-1
Jovic I.
Pegula J.
4662
Jovic I.
6311

Jessica Pegula defeated Iva Jovic in the Round of 16 at Wimbledon, advancing with a 4-6, 6-3, 6-1 victory. Pegula hit 2 aces and 0 double faults, while Jovic had 1 ace and 1 double fault. Pegula converted 47% of her break points and won 8 service breaks, compared to Jovic's 62% conversion rate and 5 service breaks.

Around the match

  • Hopefully, I can play our game better.

    Jovic I.WTA Tennis
  • I played her three times, three different surfaces, which is kind of funny. She's actually very good on all surfaces.

    Pegula J.WTA Tennis
  • You're reacting a bit instead of actually being proactive. We play honestly pretty similar where we both absorb pace very well.

    Pegula J.WTA Tennis

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-30CharlestonSFclayJessica Pegula6-4 5-7 6-3
2026-02-15DubaiR16hardJessica Pegula6-4 6-2

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
49%
Service points won·Even
63%
60%
Return points won·Even
45%
46%
Break points saved·Even
58%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.4
2.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.6
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
93
91
Break points saved·Slight edge
86
95
Break points won·Even
99
98
Deciding sets·Slight edge
99
92
Tiebreaks·
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Pegula J.74%
Jovic I.26%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Pegula J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.3+106 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.7Grass Elo 1798
7.4Overall Elo 2097
ELO gap
2.6Overall Elo 1906
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
8.18 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
8.18 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
5.5Won 59% in United Kingdom (22)
Country comfort
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
78
71

Pegula J.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d) · Jovic I.: played today · 2 matches, 45 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
24°CPartly cloudy
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 52%

Draw