Yaroslava Bartashevich vs Maria Sara PopaContrexeville Qualifying Semi-final

Contrexeville · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
#522WTA
1203ELO
1192Clay ELO
21 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWLWL
0 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 5 July 2026 ·
clay
#430WTA
1412ELO
1395Clay ELO
21 yrs · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWLWL
Bartashevich Y.
1-6 6-7
Sara Popa M.
Bartashevich Y.
160
Sara Popa M.
672

Maria Sara Popa defeated Yaroslava Bartashevich 6-1, 7-6 in the semifinals of the Contrexeville clay court tournament. Popa converted 67% of her break points, compared to 22% for Bartashevich, and won four service breaks to Bartashevich's two. Popa hit nine aces and ten double faults, while Bartashevich had ten of each, and won 79% of her first-serve points to Bartashevich's 69%.

Key context

  • Match story: Maria Sara Popa came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–1 7–6.

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-06-22W25 PerigueuxR32clayYaroslava Bartashevich7-5 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
56%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
61%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
43%
Service points won·Even
54%
55%
Return points won·Even
43%
47%
Break points saved·Even
50%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.0
1.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.5
5.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Bartashevich Y.12%
Sara Popa M.88%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Sara Popa M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.5Clay Elo 1192
Surface ELO
7.5+203 Clay Elo edge
2.4Overall Elo 1203
ELO gap
7.6Overall Elo 1412
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.63 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.56 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
27°CPartly cloudy
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 47%

Draw