Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Marco CecchinatoMilan Final

Milan · CHALLENGER · Final
#87ATP
1681ELO
1668Clay ELO
$294kYTD
$1.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWLLW
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 5 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 1st on
#173ATP
1576ELO
1546Clay ELO
$167kYTD
$5.3MCAREER
33 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLWWW
Diaz Acosta F.
6-7 7-6 7-6
Cecchinato M.
Diaz Acosta F.
6772
Cecchinato M.
7661

Facundo Diaz Acosta won the Milan clay court final, defeating Marco Cecchinato 6-7, 7-6, 7-6. The two players converted one service break each and had similar first-serve win percentages, with Diaz Acosta at 74% and Cecchinato at 76%. Diaz Acosta hit four aces and five double faults, while Cecchinato had nine aces and two double faults.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
55%
Service points won·Even
62%
65%
Return points won·Slight edge
43%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
66%
Aces / match·Even
3.1
3.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.5
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
5
39
Break points saved·Slight edge
72
79
Break points won·Even
16
13
Deciding sets·Dominant
4
59
Tiebreaks·Dominant
25
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Diaz Acosta F.75%
Cecchinato M.25%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Diaz Acosta F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.4+110 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Clay Elo 1536
6.1Overall Elo 1654
ELO gap
3.9Overall Elo 1566
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
8.48 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
8.38 of last 10 on clay
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
100
75

Diaz Acosta F.: 17 days rest · Cecchinato M.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 52%

Draw