Emma Navarro vs Marta KostyukWimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 32
#28WTA
1866ELO
1774Grass ELO
$922kYTD
$6.6MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWLWW
1 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 4 July 2026 ·
grass
No.2 Court · 1st on
#11WTA
2057ELO
1737Grass ELO
$3.5MYTD
$10MCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWLWWW
Navarro E.
2-6 6-4 1-6
Kostyuk M.
Navarro E.
2611
Kostyuk M.
6462

Marta Kostyuk advanced to the Round of 16 at Wimbledon by defeating Emma Navarro in the Round of 32. The match ended with a score of 6-2, 4-6, 6-1 in Kostyuk's favor. Kostyuk converted 44% of her break points and secured four service breaks, compared to Navarro's one break, en route to the victory.

Key context

  • Match story: Marta Kostyuk came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–2 4–6 6–1.

Head to head

30
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-06-16BerlinR32grassEmma Navarro6-2 6-3
2024-08-26US OpenR32hardEmma Navarro6-4 4-6 6-3
2024-08-05TorontoR16hardEmma Navarro7-5 7-5

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
48%
Service points won·Even
59%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
43%
48%
Break points saved·Even
57%
61%
Aces / match·Even
3.4
3.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.7
4.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
71
86
Break points saved·Dominant
45
72
Break points won·Even
97
94
Deciding sets·Slight edge
88
95
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
70
80

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Navarro E.30%
Kostyuk M.70%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Kostyuk M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.2+18 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.8Grass Elo 1737
2.4Overall Elo 1850
ELO gap
7.6Overall Elo 2057
7.8Leads 2–0 on grass
H2H
2.2Trails 0–2 on grass
7.88 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
4.64 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
76
66

Navarro E.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 47 games (7d) · Kostyuk M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 55 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CPartly cloudy
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw