Gustavo Heide vs Marco Cecchinato — Milan Semi-final

Milan · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
BRA5
Gustavo Heide
#133ATP
1695ELO
1679Clay ELO
$178kYTD
$620kCAREER
24 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWWWWL
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 4 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 1st on
Marco Cecchinato
ITA
Marco Cecchinato
#173ATP
1576ELO
1546Clay ELO
$167kYTD
$5.3MCAREER
33 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLWWL
Heide G.
1-6 5-7
Cecchinato M.
Heide G.
150
Cecchinato M.
672

Marco Cecchinato advanced to the Milan semifinals by defeating Gustavo Heide 6-1, 7-5. Cecchinato converted 75% of his break points and won 84% of his first-serve points. He secured three service breaks en route to the win.

Key context

  • Match story: Marco Cecchinato came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–1 7–5.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Heide G.Cecchinato M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
54%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
55%
Service points won·Even
62%
65%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
37%
Break points saved·Even
62%
66%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.2
3.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.7
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Heide G.Cecchinato M.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
51
39
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
79
Break points won·Even
10
13
Deciding sets·Even
63
59
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
88
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Heide G.80%
Cecchinato M.20%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Heide G. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Heide G.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Cecchinato M.
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.9+154 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.1Clay Elo 1536
6.7Overall Elo 1703
ELO gap
3.3Overall Elo 1566
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
9.39 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.57 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Heide G.Cecchinato M.
Freshness·Clear edge
87
75

Heide G.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Cecchinato M.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
29°CMainly clear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 48%

Draw