Andrej Nedic vs Keegan SmithBrasov Quarter-final

Brasov · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#250ATP
1515ELO
1506Clay ELO
21 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLLWWL
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 3 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT 2 · 1st on
#198ATP
1421ELO
1254Clay ELO
28 yrs · 201 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLLWWW
Nedic A.
1-6 6-7
Smith K.
Nedic A.
160
Smith K.
672

Keegan Smith defeated Andrej Nedic in the quarterfinals of the Brasov tournament, winning 6-1, 7-6 on clay. Smith hit 4 aces to Nedic's 1 and won 77% of his first-serve points to Nedic's 52%. Smith converted 38% of his break points and broke Nedic's serve 3 times, while Nedic broke Smith's serve once.

Key context

  • Match story: Keegan Smith came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–1 7–6.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
74%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
65%
72%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
55%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
67%
Return points won·Clear edge
46%
34%
Break points saved·Clear edge
51%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.2
7.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.6
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Nedic A.77%
Smith K.23%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Nedic A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.9+229 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.1Clay Elo 1254
5.9Overall Elo 1492
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1421
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.27 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.73 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
84
81

Nedic A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · Smith K.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
20°COvercast
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 83%

Draw