Jan Lennard Struff vs Daniil Medvedev — Wimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 32
Jan Lennard Struff
GER
Jan Lennard Struff
#43ATP
1694ELO
1623Grass ELO
$492kYTD
$13MCAREER
36 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLWWWL
3 — 0
Sets
Friday, 3 July 2026 ·
grass
No.3 Court · 2nd on
Daniil Medvedev
RUS8
Daniil Medvedev
#7ATP
1977ELO
1855Grass ELO
$2.5MYTD
$52MCAREER
30 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWLW
Lennard Struff J.
7-6 7-6 7-5
Medvedev D.
Lennard Struff J.
7773
Medvedev D.
6650

Jan Lennard Struff defeated Daniil Medvedev in the Round of 32 at Wimbledon, advancing with a 7-6, 7-6, 7-5 victory. Struff hit 11 aces and committed 2 double faults, while Medvedev had 10 aces and 10 double faults. Struff converted 56% of his break points and secured 5 service breaks, compared to Medvedev's 31% conversion rate and 4 service breaks.

Key context

Head to head

1–8
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-02-24DubaiR32hardDaniil Medvedev6-4 7-6
2025-02-10MarseilleQFhardDaniil Medvedev6-3 6-2
2024-07-01WimbledonR32grassDaniil Medvedev6-1 6-3 4-6 7-6
2021-12-04Davis Cup Finals SF: RTF vs GERRRhardDaniil Medvedev6-4 6-4
2021-06-28WimbledonR128grassDaniil Medvedev6-4 6-1 4-6 7-6
2021-06-14HalleR32grassJan Lennard Struff7-6 6-3
2019-08-12Cincinnati MastersR16hardDaniil Medvedev6-2 6-1
2017-02-20MarseilleR16hardDaniil Medvedev6-3 3-6 7-6
2016-07-11HamburgR32clayDaniil Medvedev6-4 5-7 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Lennard Struff J.Medvedev D.
1st serve in·Slight edge
56%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
76%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
49%
Service points won·Even
65%
66%
Return points won·Slight edge
33%
41%
Break points saved·Even
65%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
11.4
7.8
Double faults / match·Even
4.0
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Lennard Struff J.Medvedev D.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
51
96
Break points saved·Even
96
99
Break points won·Dominant
5
98
Deciding sets·Dominant
68
98
Tiebreaks·Even
92
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Lennard Struff J.11%
Medvedev D.89%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Medvedev D. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Lennard Struff J.
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Medvedev D.
7.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.1Grass Elo 1623
Surface ELO
7.9+232 Grass Elo edge
1.4Overall Elo 1692
ELO gap
8.6Overall Elo 1977
3.0Trails 0–1 on grass
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on grass
6.56 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.27 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
5.0Won 50% in United Kingdom (22)
Country comfort
6.3Won 71% in United Kingdom (35)
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Lennard Struff J.Medvedev D.
Freshness·Clear edge
83
66

Lennard Struff J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d) · Medvedev D.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 55 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
24°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 37%

Draw