Rafael Jodar vs Shintaro Mochizuki — Wimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 32

ESP23

Rafael Jodar

#11ATP

1999ELO

1699Grass ELO

$1.6MYTD

$1.9MCAREER

19 yrs · 191 cm

Last 10 · pre-match

WWLWWWWLWW

1 — 3

Sets

Friday, 3 July 2026 · 13:40

grass

Court 18 · 2nd on

JPN

Shintaro Mochizuki

#112ATP

1475ELO

1520Grass ELO

$243kYTD

$1.6MCAREER

23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLWLWLWWWL

Jodar R.

6-1 6-7 4-6 4-6

Mochizuki S.

Jodar R.

66441

Mochizuki S.

17663

Shintaro Mochizuki defeated Rafael Jodar in the Round of 32 at Wimbledon. Mochizuki won the match 1-6, 7-6, 6-4, 6-4. The two players converted 7 service breaks each, with Mochizuki posting a 71% first-serve win percentage and Jodar hitting 13 aces.

Key context

Match story: Shintaro Mochizuki dropped the opening set before beating Rafael Jodar 1–6 7–6 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season

Jodar R.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Mochizuki S.

Mochizuki S.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Jodar R.

Serve advantage — Jodar R.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on grass

Jodar R.Mochizuki S.

—

Serve

—

Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season

Jodar R.Mochizuki S.

1st serve in·Clear edge

64%

51%

1st serve points won·Even

71%

68%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

55%

47%

Service points won·Slight edge

65%

58%

Return points won·Even

41%

39%

Break points saved·Even

62%

59%

Aces / match·Slight edge

4.3

3.5

Double faults / match·Dominant

1.7

5.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (44 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure

Jodar R.Mochizuki S.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Dominant

Break points won·Even

Deciding sets·Dominant

100

Tiebreaks·Dominant

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC

Jodar R.95%

Mochizuki S.5%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Jodar R. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Jodar R.

6.4

Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Mochizuki S.

5.7

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

7.2+174 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

2.8Grass Elo 1525

10.0Overall Elo 1999

ELO gap

0.0Overall Elo 1485

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

Surface form

7.87 of last 10 on grass

Win streak

9.05-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

0.04 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

6.0Reached final qualifying here last year

5.0Opponent hot: 7 of last 10

Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load

Jodar R.Mochizuki S.

Freshness·Dominant

Jodar R.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 72 games (7d) · Mochizuki S.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

SlowFast

Weather

24°COvercast

Wind 5 km/hHumidity 37%

Rafael Jodar vs Shintaro Mochizuki — Wimbledon Round of 32

Key context

Head to head

Serve vs return

Serve & return on grass

Statistics

Clutch

Win Probability

Umpiry Score

Freshness

Conditions

Draw

Serve vs return

Serve & return on grass