Caty Mcnally vs Elena RybakinaWimbledon Round of 64

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 64
#70WTA
1817ELO
1707Grass ELO
$711kYTD
$3.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWWL
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 2 July 2026 ·
grass
Centre Court · 3rd on
#2WTA
2122ELO
1884Grass ELO
$4.7MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWWLW
Mcnally C.
1-6 2-6
Rybakina E.
Mcnally C.
120
Rybakina E.
662

Elena Rybakina defeated Caty McNally in the Round of 64 at Wimbledon, winning 6-1, 6-2 on the grass courts. Rybakina converted 40% of her break points and won four service breaks to McNally's zero. Both players hit one ace, but Rybakina committed fewer double faults, 3 to 4.

Key context

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-09-24BeijingR64hardElena Rybakina7-5 4-6 6-3
2021-04-05Charleston 1R64clayCaty Mcnally6-4 0-0

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
72%
59%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
60%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
42%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
55%
64%
Return points won·Even
46%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.2
6.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.1
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
45
98
Break points saved·Dominant
31
96
Break points won·Even
94
96
Deciding sets·Dominant
33
98
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
79
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Mcnally C.10%
Rybakina E.90%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Rybakina E. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.9Grass Elo 1716
Surface ELO
7.1+168 Grass Elo edge
1.2Overall Elo 1820
ELO gap
8.8Overall Elo 2122
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
6.87 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.86 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
6.8Won 81% in United Kingdom (31)
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
81
56

Mcnally C.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 87 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°CClear
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 30%

Draw