Frances Tiafoe vs Jan ChoinskiWimbledon Round of 64

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 64
#23ATP
1918ELO
1823Grass ELO
$1.9MYTD
$18MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLLWWWW
3 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 2 July 2026 ·
grass
No.2 Court · 4th on
#77ATP
1686ELO
1534Grass ELO
$265kYTD
$1.3MCAREER
30 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWW
Tiafoe F.
4-6 6-2 7-5 6-2
Choinski J.
Tiafoe F.
46763
Choinski J.
62521

Frances Tiafoe defeated Jan Choinski in the Round of 64 at Wimbledon. The match ended with a score of 4-6, 6-2, 7-5, 6-2 in favor of Tiafoe. Tiafoe converted 45% of break points and secured 5 service breaks to Choinski's 1, while also posting a higher first-serve win percentage of 78% compared to Choinski's 69%.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
75%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
51%
Service points won·Even
67%
63%
Return points won·Even
35%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
61%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.9
5.5
Double faults / match·Even
2.0
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
75
55
Break points saved·Slight edge
97
90
Break points won·Dominant
45
20
Deciding sets·Even
88
87
Tiebreaks·Dominant
97
41

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Tiafoe F.93%
Choinski J.7%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Tiafoe F. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.9+390 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.1Grass Elo 1434
8.5Overall Elo 1918
ELO gap
1.5Overall Elo 1636
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.68 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.17 of last 10 on grass
9.06-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
5.2Won 54% in United Kingdom (26)
Country comfort
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached qualifying here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
65
87

Tiafoe F.: played today · 2 matches, 49 games (7d) · Choinski J.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 39 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°CClear
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 32%

Draw