Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Wimbledon Round of 64

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 64
Rafael Jodar
ESP23
Rafael Jodar
#11ATP
1999ELO
1699Grass ELO
$1.6MYTD
$1.9MCAREER
19 yrs · 191 cm
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWLWW
3 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 2 July 2026 ·
grass
No.2 Court · 2nd on
Pablo Carreno Busta
ESP
Pablo Carreno Busta
#72ATP
1801ELO
1598Grass ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLWWLW
Jodar R.
3-6 6-3 1-6 6-3 6-4
Carreno Busta P.
Jodar R.
361663
Carreno Busta P.
636342

Rafael Jodar defeated Pablo Carreno Busta in the Round of 64 at Wimbledon. The match lasted five sets, with Jodar ultimately prevailing 3-6, 6-3, 1-6, 6-3, 6-4.

Key context

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-31Roland GarrosR16clayRafael Jodar4-6 4-6 6-1 6-2 6-2

Statistics

This season
Jodar R.Carreno Busta P.
1st serve in·Even
64%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
56%
55%
Service points won·Even
65%
64%
Return points won·Even
41%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
52%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.5
2.9
Double faults / match·Even
1.7
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (44 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Jodar R.Carreno Busta P.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
86
46
Break points saved·Even
91
93
Break points won·Slight edge
71
60
Deciding sets·Dominant
100
14
Tiebreaks·Even
93
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Jodar R.85%
Carreno Busta P.15%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Jodar R. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Jodar R.
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Carreno Busta P.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.3+101 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.7Grass Elo 1598
7.5Overall Elo 1999
ELO gap
2.5Overall Elo 1800
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
Surface form
4.65 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Jodar R.Carreno Busta P.
Freshness·Clear edge
60
81

Jodar R.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 94 games (7d) · Carreno Busta P.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°COvercast
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 35%

Draw