Marco Cecchinato vs Raul Brancaccio — Milan Round of 16

Milan · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
Marco Cecchinato
ITA
Marco Cecchinato
#173ATP
1576ELO
1546Clay ELO
$167kYTD
$5.3MCAREER
33 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 2 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 4th on
Raul Brancaccio
ITA
Raul Brancaccio
#232ATP
1492ELO
1465Clay ELO
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLLWWW
Cecchinato M.
6-2 7-6
Brancaccio R.
Cecchinato M.
672
Brancaccio R.
260

Marco Cecchinato advanced to the quarterfinals of the Milan clay tournament with a win over Raul Brancaccio in the Round of 16. Cecchinato won the match 6-2, 7-6, converting 30% of his break points compared to Brancaccio's 25%. Cecchinato secured 3 service breaks to Brancaccio's 1.

Key context

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2021-05-24ParmaR32clayMarco Cecchinato6-3 7-6

Statistics

This season
Cecchinato M.Brancaccio R.
1st serve in·Even
64%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
55%
50%
Service points won·Even
65%
61%
Return points won·Even
37%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
58%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.0
2.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.1
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Cecchinato M.Brancaccio R.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
39
11
Break points saved·Dominant
79
49
Break points won·Slight edge
13
19
Deciding sets·Dominant
59
9
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
72
51

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Cecchinato M.66%
Brancaccio R.34%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Cecchinato M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Cecchinato M.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Brancaccio R.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.9+72 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Clay Elo 1465
5.9Overall Elo 1566
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1492
2.2Trails 0–2 on clay
H2H
7.8Leads 2–0 on clay
6.97 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.73 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Cecchinato M.Brancaccio R.
Freshness·Slight edge
71
80

Cecchinato M.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d) · Brancaccio R.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 38 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
32°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 27%

Draw