Aryna Sabalenka vs Mccartney Kessler — Wimbledon Round of 64

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 64
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR1
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
1987Grass ELO
$5.1MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 1 July 2026 ·
grass
No.1 Court · 1st on
Mccartney Kessler
USA
Mccartney Kessler
#58WTA
1808ELO
1693Grass ELO
$742kYTD
$2.6MCAREER
27 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLWWLL
Sabalenka A.
6-1 7-6
Kessler M.
Sabalenka A.
672
Kessler M.
160

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Mccartney Kessler in the Round of 64 at Wimbledon, winning in straight sets 6-1, 7-6. Sabalenka hit 7 aces to Kessler's 1 and converted all of her break points, while Kessler converted 33%. Sabalenka won 80% of her first serves to Kessler's 64%, and she secured 3 service breaks to Kessler's 1.

Around the match

  • “I trust my shots on the tiebreak. I'm kind of free. The way you start it is most likely the way it's going to go. Staying aggressive really helps me get these incredible stats.”

    Sabalenka A.tennismajors.com ↗

  • “She really stepped in and forced me to raise my level. I'm happy I was able to pass this test. Sometimes to be tested early is really helpful.”

    Sabalenka A.tennismajors.com ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Aryna Sabalenka came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–1 7–6.

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-05Indian WellsR64hardAryna Sabalenka7-6 6-3

Statistics

This season
Sabalenka A.Kessler M.
1st serve in·Even
66%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
62%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
66%
56%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
56%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.6
1.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.8
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Sabalenka A.Kessler M.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
100
51
Break points saved·Dominant
93
30
Break points won·Slight edge
99
89
Deciding sets·Clear edge
97
85
Tiebreaks·Dominant
100
13

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Sabalenka A.93%
Kessler M.7%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Sabalenka A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sabalenka A.
8.3
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Kessler M.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.0+323 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.0Grass Elo 1664
10.0Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1784
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
7.78 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
6.5Won 74% in United Kingdom (35)
Country comfort
Context
8.5Reached the semis here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Sabalenka A.Kessler M.
Freshness·Dominant
66
94

Sabalenka A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 53 games (7d) · Kessler M.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CPartly cloudy
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 48%

Draw