Mariano Navone vs Flavio CobolliWimbledon Round of 128

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 128
#44ATP
1822ELO
1567Grass ELO
$722kYTD
$3.1MCAREER
25 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWLL
1 — 3
Sets
Wednesday, 1 July 2026 ·
grass
No.2 Court · 2nd on
#10ATP
1896ELO
1742Grass ELO
$3.2MYTD
$8.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLLLWWWL
Navone M.
6-1 6-7 3-6 6-7
Cobolli F.
Navone M.
66361
Cobolli F.
17673

Flavio Cobolli defeated Mariano Navone in the Round of 128 at Wimbledon. The match ended with a score of 1-6, 7-6, 6-3, 7-6 in favor of Cobolli. Both players converted 7 service breaks, but Cobolli hit more aces and had a higher first-serve win percentage.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-07-22UmagR32clayFlavio Cobolli6-2 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
72%
55%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
65%
74%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
53%
Service points won·Even
60%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.3
6.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.3
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
49
75
Break points saved·Clear edge
77
95
Break points won·Dominant
88
38
Deciding sets·Dominant
17
99
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
84
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Navone M.24%
Cobolli F.76%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Cobolli F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.0Grass Elo 1585
Surface ELO
7.0+157 Grass Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1840
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1896
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
3.33 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on grass
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
7.0Reached the quarters here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
87
55

Navone M.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d) · Cobolli F.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 92 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 48%

Draw