Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 64

ESP

Daniel Merida Aguilar

#40ATP

1744ELO

1557Grass ELO

21 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LWWLWWWWLW

1 — 3

Sets

Wednesday, 1 July 2026 · 14:15

grass

No.2 Court · 3rd on

RUS8

Daniil Medvedev

#7ATP

1977ELO

1855Grass ELO

$2.5MYTD

$52MCAREER

30 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

WLLWLWWLWW

Merida Aguilar D.

6-3 3-6 5-7 2-6

Medvedev D.

Merida Aguilar D.

63521

Medvedev D.

36763

Daniil Medvedev defeated Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Round of 64 at Wimbledon. The match ended with a score of 3-6, 6-3, 7-5, 6-2 in favor of Medvedev.

Key context

Match story: Daniil Medvedev dropped the opening set before beating Daniel Merida Aguilar 3–6 6–3 7–5 6–2.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season

Merida Aguilar D.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Medvedev D.

Medvedev D.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Merida Aguilar D.

Serve advantage — Medvedev D.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on grass

Merida Aguilar D.Medvedev D.

—

Serve

—

Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season

Merida Aguilar D.Medvedev D.

1st serve in·Even

67%

65%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

66%

74%

2nd serve points won·Even

50%

49%

Service points won·Even

61%

65%

Return points won·Even

42%

41%

Break points saved·Slight edge

57%

64%

Aces / match·Dominant

2.4

7.7

Double faults / match·Clear edge

2.6

3.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure

Merida Aguilar D.Medvedev D.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Dominant

Break points won·Dominant

Deciding sets·Slight edge

Tiebreaks·Dominant

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC

Merida Aguilar D.8%

Medvedev D.92%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Medvedev D. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Merida Aguilar D.

5.7

Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Medvedev D.

7.7

Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

1.3Grass Elo 1556

Surface ELO

8.7+299 Grass Elo edge

2.1Overall Elo 1742

ELO gap

7.9Overall Elo 1977

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

Surface form

6.97 of last 10 on grass

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Country comfort

6.2Won 71% in United Kingdom (34)

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load

Merida Aguilar D.Medvedev D.

Freshness·Clear edge

Merida Aguilar D.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 57 games (7d) · Medvedev D.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

SlowFast

Weather

24°COvercast

Wind 10 km/hHumidity 45%

Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev — Wimbledon Round of 64

Key context

Head to head

Serve vs return

Serve & return on grass

Statistics

Clutch

Win Probability

Umpiry Score

Freshness

Conditions

Draw

Serve vs return

Serve & return on grass