Daniel Michalski vs Francesco PassaroMilan Round of 32

Milan · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#330ATP
1435ELO
1386Clay ELO
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWWLLL
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 30 June 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 1st on
#222ATP
1592ELO
1578Clay ELO
$91kYTD
$1.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLWLWL
Michalski D.
4-6 5-7
Passaro F.
Michalski D.
450
Passaro F.
672

Francesco Passaro defeated Daniel Michalski in the Round of 32 of the Milan clay tournament. The match ended with a score of 6-4, 7-5 in favor of Passaro. Key stats included Passaro's 4 service breaks to Michalski's 2, and Passaro converting 50% of his break points to Michalski's 67%.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2021-04-22M15 Cairo 6R16clayDaniel Michalski6-4 6-2

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
60%
63%
Return points won·Even
38%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
52%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.4
4.9
Double faults / match·Even
1.8
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
27
57
Break points saved·Dominant
24
89
Break points won·Clear edge
26
11
Deciding sets·Clear edge
64
81
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
62
84

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Michalski D.12%
Passaro F.88%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Passaro F. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.2Clay Elo 1366
Surface ELO
7.8+227 Clay Elo edge
2.6Overall Elo 1417
ELO gap
7.4Overall Elo 1607
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.04 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.54 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
89
85

Michalski D.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d) · Passaro F.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
27°CPartly cloudy
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 62%

Draw