Yosuke Watanuki vs Andre IlaganCary Round of 32

Cary · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#416ATP
1541ELO
1531Hard ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLWWLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 30 June 2026 ·
hard
COURT 13 · 1st on
#210ATP
1543ELO
1518Hard ELO
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWW
Watanuki Y.
3-6 6-0 6-3
Ilagan A.
Watanuki Y.
3662
Ilagan A.
6031

Yosuke Watanuki defeated Andre Ilagan in the Round of 32 at the Cary hard-court tournament, coming back from a set down to win 3-6, 6-0, 6-3. Watanuki hit 10 aces to Ilagan's 5 and converted 43% of his break points, compared to Ilagan's 33%. Watanuki won 82% of his first-serve points to Ilagan's 60%, and he broke Ilagan's serve 6 times to Ilagan's 3.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
52%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
52%
Service points won·Even
59%
63%
Return points won·Even
38%
39%
Break points saved·Clear edge
48%
67%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.6
4.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.0
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
16
37
Break points saved·Slight edge
70
76
Break points won·Clear edge
3
17
Deciding sets·Dominant
11
71
Tiebreaks·Dominant
89
14

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Watanuki Y.46%
Ilagan A.54%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.2+18 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.8Hard Elo 1519
5.1Overall Elo 1552
ELO gap
4.9Overall Elo 1544
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.04 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.78 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 6
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
100
61

Watanuki Y.: 21 days rest · Ilagan A.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 64%

Draw