Stan Wawrinka vs Matteo BerrettiniWimbledon Round of 128

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 128
#125ATP
1678ELO
1590Grass ELO
$657kYTD
$38MCAREER
41 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWLWLLL
1 — 3
Sets
Tuesday, 30 June 2026 ·
grass
No.1 Court · 3rd on
#42ATP
1831ELO
1739Grass ELO
$902kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLWWWW
Wawrinka S.
7-6 6-7 6-7 6-7
Berrettini M.
Wawrinka S.
76661
Berrettini M.
67773

Matteo Berrettini defeated Stan Wawrinka in the Round of 128 at Wimbledon, winning 6-7, 7-6, 7-6, 7-6. Berrettini served 29 aces and committed 4 double faults, while converting 17% of break points and winning 86% of first-serve points. Both players earned one service break apiece.

Around the match

  • He's a legend, and he showed it today – an unbelievable player and competitor. I remember in 2014 I was playing the juniors here, and I snuck onto Centre Court to watch him play Roger.

    Berrettini M.tennismajors.com

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
55%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
53%
Service points won·Even
66%
68%
Return points won·Even
34%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
68%
Aces / match·Even
7.9
8.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.5
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
53
75
Break points saved·Even
97
100
Break points won·Dominant
17
42
Deciding sets·Dominant
62
88
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
91
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Wawrinka S.19%
Berrettini M.81%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Berrettini M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.1
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
3.1Grass Elo 1590
Surface ELO
6.9+149 Grass Elo edge
3.1Overall Elo 1678
ELO gap
6.9Overall Elo 1831
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.35 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.36 of last 10 on grass
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
5.3Won 55% in United Kingdom (42)
Country comfort
6.2Won 70% in United Kingdom (23)
3.0Clay → Grass
Surface transition
3.0Clay → Grass
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
72

Berrettini M.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 58 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CMainly clear
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 41%

Draw