Johan Alexander Rodriguez Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli De AlmeidaQuito Round of 32

Quito · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#660ATP
1411ELO
1365Clay ELO
22 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLWWWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 30 June 2026 ·
clay
CANCHA 1 · 2nd on
#281ATP
1412ELO
1404Clay ELO
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWW
Alexander Rodriguez Rodriguez J.
5-7 3-6
Pucinelli De Almeida M.
Alexander Rodriguez Rodriguez J.
530
Pucinelli De Almeida M.
762

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida defeated Johan Alexander Rodriguez Rodriguez in the Round of 32 of the Quito tournament on clay, winning 7-5, 6-3. Pucinelli De Almeida converted 57% of his break points and broke his opponent's serve four times, compared to Rodriguez Rodriguez's two service breaks. Pucinelli De Almeida also won 67% of his first-serve points, while Rodriguez Rodriguez won 43%.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·
58%
1st serve points won·
63%
2nd serve points won·
51%
Service points won·
58%
Return points won·
48%
Break points saved·
55%
Aces / match·
2.2
Double faults / match·
4.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window. ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Alexander Rodriguez Rodriguez J.53%
Pucinelli De Almeida M.47%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Clay Elo 1365
Surface ELO
5.3+26 Clay Elo edge
5.1Overall Elo 1411
ELO gap
4.9Overall Elo 1400
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
6.47 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.77 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
50

Pucinelli De Almeida M.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 105 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
21°CMainly clear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 37%

Draw