Andrey Rublev vs Roman SafiullinWimbledon Round of 128

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 128
#18ATP
1902ELO
1784Grass ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWWWL
2 — 3
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
grass
Court 16 · 1st on
#103ATP
1750ELO
1627Grass ELO
$199kYTD
$4.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWL
Rublev A.
4-6 7-6 6-3 3-6 6-7
Safiullin R.
Rublev A.
476362
Safiullin R.
663673

Roman Safiullin defeated Andrey Rublev in the Round of 128 at Wimbledon. The match ended with a score of 6-4, 6-7, 3-6, 6-3, 7-6 in favor of Safiullin. Safiullin served 10 aces and committed 3 double faults, while Rublev had 22 aces and 8 double faults; Safiullin won 82% of his first serves and converted 23% of break points, compared to Rublev's 75% and 33%, respectively; Safiullin secured 3 service breaks to Rublev's 2.

Key context

  • Match story: Roman Safiullin closed it out in five sets, 6–4 6–7 3–6 6–3 7–6.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
55%
Service points won·Even
66%
66%
Return points won·Even
39%
39%
Break points saved·Even
67%
64%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.7
5.8
Double faults / match·Even
2.6
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
83
20
Break points saved·Slight edge
98
93
Break points won·Dominant
65
18
Deciding sets·Dominant
96
22
Tiebreaks·Dominant
86
16

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Rublev A.85%
Safiullin R.15%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Rublev A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.1+166 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.9Grass Elo 1618
7.1Overall Elo 1902
ELO gap
2.9Overall Elo 1732
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.95 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.76 of last 10 on grass
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
5.9Won 64% in United Kingdom (28)
Country comfort
Context
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
86

Rublev A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
20°CClear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 46%

Draw