Juan Pablo Varillas vs Dmitry PopkoQuito Round of 32

Quito · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#236ATP
1440ELO
1431Clay ELO
30 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
clay
CANCHA 1 · 3rd on
#673ATP
1385ELO
1334Clay ELO
29 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWLLLLL
Varillas J.
6-2 4-6 6-4
Popko D.
Varillas J.
6462
Popko D.
2641

Juan Pablo Varillas defeated Dmitry Popko in the Round of 32 at the Quito tournament on clay. The match ended with a score of 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 in Varillas' favor. Varillas hit 6 aces and 3 double faults, while Popko had 4 aces and 6 double faults; Varillas converted 40% of break points and broke Popko's serve 4 times, compared to Popko's 2 service breaks.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
60%
58%
Return points won·Even
42%
39%
Break points saved·Even
59%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.7
4.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.5
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 4). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
31
0
Break points saved·Dominant
68
27
Break points won·Dominant
45
3
Deciding sets·Dominant
44
4
Tiebreaks·Dominant
29
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Varillas J.70%
Popko D.30%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Varillas J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.2+97 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.8Clay Elo 1334
5.7Overall Elo 1440
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1385
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.63 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
1.52 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
0.0Lost last 9
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
100

Varillas J.: 18 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
19°COvercast
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 40%

Draw