Jannik Sinner vs Miomir KecmanovicWimbledon Round of 128

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 128
#1ATP
2320ELO
2088Grass ELO
$6.9MYTD
$65MCAREER
25 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWLWW
3 — 2
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
grass
Centre Court · 1st on
#66ATP
1768ELO
1641Grass ELO
$777kYTD
$9.0MCAREER
26 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLWLWW
Sinner J.
4-6 6-3 6-7 6-2 6-3
Kecmanovic M.
Sinner J.
466663
Kecmanovic M.
637232

Jannik Sinner defeated Miomir Kecmanovic in the Round of 128 at Wimbledon. The match ended with a score of 4-6, 6-3, 6-7, 6-2, 6-3. Sinner hit 29 aces to Kecmanovic's one and converted 38 percent of his break points to Kecmanovic's 25 percent.

Around the match

  • felt physically good after an exhibition match this week in London

    Sinner J.Nine.com.au
  • It just seems much worse than it is. I'm actually very surprised they let me keep playing – all white, and it turned into a little red. It's just a nail. I didn't want to disturb Miomir.

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

40
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-07-01WimbledonR32grassJannik Sinner6-1 6-4 6-2
2022-08-15Cincinnati MastersR32hardJannik Sinner7-5 3-1
2021-02-01Great Ocean Road OpenQFhardJannik Sinner7-6 6-4
2019-11-05NextGen FinalsSFhardJannik Sinner2-4 4-1 4-2 4-2

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
81%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
58%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
73%
65%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
71%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
10.0
5.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.5
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
99
28
Break points saved·Slight edge
100
94
Break points won·Dominant
99
37
Deciding sets·Dominant
100
11
Tiebreaks·Dominant
100
43

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Sinner J.98%
Kecmanovic M.2%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Sinner J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
8.3
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
10.0+462 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Grass Elo 1626
10.0Overall Elo 2320
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1766
7.0Leads 1–0 on grass
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on grass
8.78 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.15 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
6.7Won 78% in United Kingdom (27)
Country comfort
5.3Won 55% in United Kingdom (22)
Context
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
80

Kecmanovic M.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 43%

Draw