Alejo Sanchez Quilez vs Mathys ErhardMilan Qualifying Final

Milan · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final
#446ATP
1293ELO
1268Clay ELO
21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
clay
COURT 10 · 1st on
#337ATP
1382ELO
1351Clay ELO
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWWW
Sanchez Quilez A.
3-6 5-7
Erhard M.
Sanchez Quilez A.
350
Erhard M.
672

Mathys Erhard won the Milan clay court final, defeating Alejo Sanchez Quilez 6-3, 7-5. Erhard hit 2 aces and 4 double faults, winning 74% of his first serves and converting 62% of break points. He secured 5 service breaks to Sanchez Quilez's 2.

Key context

  • Match story: Mathys Erhard closed it out in two sets, 6–3 7–5.

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-22M25 Badalona 1R16clayAlejo Sanchez Quilez2-6 6-4 7-6(5)

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
63%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
57%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
46%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
56%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.5
4.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.8
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Sanchez Quilez A.21%
Erhard M.79%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Erhard M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.9Clay Elo 1268
Surface ELO
6.1+88 Clay Elo edge
3.9Overall Elo 1293
ELO gap
6.1Overall Elo 1385
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.77 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.06 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
92

Erhard M.: 11 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
27°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 58%

Draw