Alex Barrena vs Hugo Dellien — Milan Round of 32

Milan · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
Alex Barrena
ARG
Alex Barrena
#259ATP
1375ELO
1347Clay ELO
$100kYTD
$266kCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
clay
COURT 10 · 3rd on
Hugo Dellien
BOL
Hugo Dellien
#141ATP
1637ELO
1624Clay ELO
$236kYTD
$3.2MCAREER
33 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWLWWW
Barrena A.
5-7 6-1 6-4
Dellien H.
Barrena A.
5662
Dellien H.
7141

Alex Barrena defeated Hugo Dellien in the Round of 32 of the Milan clay tournament, 5-7, 6-1, 6-4. Barrena hit one ace and one double fault, while Dellien had five aces and two double faults. Barrena converted 33% of break points and won five service breaks to Dellien's three.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Barrena A.Dellien H.
1st serve in·Clear edge
56%
70%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
45%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
55%
60%
Return points won·Even
39%
41%
Break points saved·Even
56%
59%
Aces / match·Even
2.6
2.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.4
1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Barrena A.Dellien H.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
30
21
Break points saved·Dominant
43
69
Break points won·Dominant
54
7
Deciding sets·Dominant
27
66
Tiebreaks·Dominant
68
2

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Barrena A.11%
Dellien H.89%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Dellien H. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Barrena A.
3.1
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Dellien H.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
1.9Clay Elo 1362
Surface ELO
8.1+246 Clay Elo edge
2.1Overall Elo 1385
ELO gap
7.9Overall Elo 1620
5.2Split 1–1 on clay
H2H
4.8Split 1–1 on clay
0.61 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.06 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 10
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
3.0Grass → Clay
Surface transition
3.0Grass → Clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Barrena A.Dellien H.
Freshness·Clear edge
82
96

Barrena A.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 40 games (7d) · Dellien H.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
34°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 34%

Draw