Jan Lennard Struff vs Sebastian BaezWimbledon Round of 128

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 128
#43ATP
1694ELO
1623Grass ELO
$492kYTD
$13MCAREER
36 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLWWWL
3 — 2
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
grass
Court 14 · 3rd on
#53ATP
1759ELO
1546Grass ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLWW
Lennard Struff J.
6-1 7-6 4-6 2-6 7-5
Baez S.
Lennard Struff J.
674273
Baez S.
166652

Jan Lennard Struff defeated Sebastian Baez in the Round of 128 at Wimbledon. The match ended with a score of 6-1, 7-6, 4-6, 2-6, 7-5. Struff served 20 aces and converted 44 percent of break points, while Baez had 4 aces and converted 33 percent of break points; both players won 4 service breaks.

Key context

  • Match story: Jan Lennard Struff came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–1 7–6 4–6 2–6 7–5.

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-04-08Monte Carlo MastersR64clayJan Lennard Struff1-6 7-6 6-2

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
57%
72%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
75%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
52%
Service points won·Even
64%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
39%
Break points saved·Even
66%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
11.0
1.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.7
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
51
73
Break points saved·Slight edge
96
86
Break points won·Dominant
5
77
Deciding sets·Clear edge
68
90
Tiebreaks·Dominant
92
53

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Lennard Struff J.57%
Baez S.43%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
6.0+77 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Grass Elo 1546
4.1Overall Elo 1692
ELO gap
5.8Overall Elo 1760
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
4.95 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
2.13 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
10.010-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.7Won 45% in United Kingdom (20)
Country comfort
Surface transition
3.0Clay → Grass
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
83
78

Lennard Struff J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d) · Baez S.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CMainly clear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 39%

Draw