Yuta Shimizu vs Dan MartinCary Qualifying Semi-final

Cary · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
#393ATP
1446ELO
1417Hard ELO
27 yrs · 163 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 28 June 2026 ·
hard
Court 4 · 1st on
#636ATP
1313ELO
1276Hard ELO
27 yrs · 175 cm
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLLLLWL
Shimizu Y.
7-6 7-6
Martin D.
Shimizu Y.
772
Martin D.
660

Yuta Shimizu defeated Dan Martin in the semifinals of the Cary tournament, winning 7-6, 7-6 on hard courts. Shimizu hit 8 aces to Martin's 1 and converted 67% of his break points, while both players won 2 service breaks and had similar first-serve win percentages. Shimizu committed 3 double faults to Martin's 2.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
61%
62%
Return points won·Even
37%
33%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
66%
Aces / match·Even
4.4
5.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Shimizu Y.87%
Martin D.13%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Shimizu Y. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.8+141 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.2Hard Elo 1276
6.7Overall Elo 1447
ELO gap
3.3Overall Elo 1313
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.06 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
1.52 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
76

Martin D.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 31 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 78%

Draw