Andrew Fenty vs Karl PolingCary Qualifying Semi-final

Cary · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
#401ATP
1199ELO
1183Hard ELO
26 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 28 June 2026 ·
hard
COURT 15 COURT 13 COURT 10 · 1st on
#491ATP
1314ELO
1320Hard ELO
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLLWL
Fenty A.
6-3 6-3
Poling K.
Fenty A.
662
Poling K.
330

Andrew Fenty defeated Karl Poling in the semifinals of the Cary tournament, winning 6-3, 6-3 on hard courts. Fenty hit 7 aces to Poling's 2 and converted 33% of break points, while Poling did not convert any. Fenty won 73% of first-serve points to Poling's 55%, and secured 3 service breaks to Poling's 0.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
69%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
52%
Service points won·Even
63%
61%
Return points won·Even
37%
41%
Break points saved·Even
57%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.7
1.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.3
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (13 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Fenty A.21%
Poling K.79%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Poling K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.3Hard Elo 1183
Surface ELO
6.7+138 Hard Elo edge
3.6Overall Elo 1199
ELO gap
6.4Overall Elo 1314
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
5.96 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.68 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
66
83

Fenty A.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 67 games (7d) · Poling K.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 78%

Draw