Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys — Eastbourne Final

Eastbourne · WTA · Final
Tatjana Maria
GER
Tatjana Maria
#80WTA
1703ELO
1688Grass ELO
39 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 27 June 2026 ·
grass
Madison Keys
USA2
Madison Keys
#24WTA
1987ELO
1843Grass ELO
$1.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLLWWW
Maria T.
5-7 4-6
Keys M.
Maria T.
540
Keys M.
762

Madison Keys won the final of the Eastbourne grass tournament, defeating Tatjana Maria 7-5, 6-4. Keys served 3 aces and 4 double faults, winning 89% of her first serves and converting 50% of break points. She converted 3 service breaks to Maria's 1.

Around the match

  • “Winning the title for the third time meant the absolute world to me.”

    Keys M.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “I want to congratulate Madison and her team on a great week, and I wish her all the best for Wimbledon. It's a really nice tournament. I swear I will come back next year – I won't wait another 11 years! It's amazing to travel with my family around the world, and we live for these moments.”

    Maria T.LTA ↗

  • “I always forget how heavy this one is. It's been such a special place for me to play here in Eastbourne. To win for a third time means the world to me.”

    Keys M.BBC ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

1–3
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-06-09Queen's ClubSFgrassTatjana Maria6-3 7-6
2019-04-01CharlestonR32clayMadison Keys7-6 4-6 6-4
2017-08-28US OpenR64hardMadison Keys6-3 6-4
2015-06-29WimbledonR32grassMadison Keys6-4 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Maria T.Keys M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
47%
Service points won·Even
58%
61%
Return points won·Even
43%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
64%
Aces / match·Even
4.2
3.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.2
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (41 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Maria T.Keys M.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
2
90
Break points saved·Dominant
4
85
Break points won·Clear edge
70
92
Deciding sets·Dominant
3
94
Tiebreaks·Dominant
10
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Maria T.19%
Keys M.81%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Keys M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Maria T.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Keys M.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.3Grass Elo 1637
Surface ELO
6.7+139 Grass Elo edge
1.1Overall Elo 1643
ELO gap
8.9Overall Elo 1957
7.0Leads 1–0 on grass
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on grass
8.38 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
8.48 of last 10 on grass
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
5.2Won 52% in United Kingdom (40)
Country comfort
6.6Won 76% in United Kingdom (58)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Maria T.Keys M.
Freshness·Clear edge
88
74

Maria T.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 35 games (7d) · Keys M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
24°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 68%

Draw