Matias Soto vs Gonzalo VillanuevaPiracicaba Round of 16

Piracicaba · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#262ATP
1421ELO
1412Clay ELO
27 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Friday, 26 June 2026 ·
clay
#322ATP
1361ELO
1350Clay ELO
31 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWWWW
Soto M.
6-4 3-6 5-7
Villanueva G.
Soto M.
6351
Villanueva G.
4672

Gonzalo Villanueva defeated Matias Soto 4-6, 6-3, 7-5 in the Round of 16 at the Piracicaba tournament on clay. Villanueva hit 5 aces and 3 double faults, winning 71% of his first serves, while Soto hit 4 aces and 9 double faults, winning 65% of his first serves. Villanueva converted 25% of break points and broke Soto's serve 6 times, while Soto converted 45% of break points and broke Villanueva's serve 5 times.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
55%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
46%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
57%
Return points won·Even
41%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
50%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.7
2.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.5
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
34
23
Break points saved·Dominant
51
19
Break points won·Clear edge
14
26
Deciding sets·Clear edge
69
83
Tiebreaks·Dominant
56
17

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Soto M.81%
Villanueva G.19%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Soto M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.9Clay Elo 1536
Surface ELO
5.1+8 Clay Elo edge
4.8Overall Elo 1532
ELO gap
5.2Overall Elo 1548
5.2Split 1–1 on clay
H2H
4.8Split 1–1 on clay
6.77 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.25 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
95

Soto M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
17°COvercast
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 85%

Draw