Elena Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina MuchovaBad Homburg Semi-final

Bad Homburg · WTA · Semi-final
#74WTA
1850ELO
1765Grass ELO
28 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLLWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 26 June 2026 ·
grass
#7WTA
2066ELO
1852Grass ELO
$4.5MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
Gabriela Ruse E.
4-6 4-6
Muchova K.
Gabriela Ruse E.
440
Muchova K.
662

Karolina Muchova defeated Elena Gabriela Ruse in the semifinals of the Bad Homburg tournament, winning 6-4, 6-4 on grass. Muchova hit 4 aces and 2 double faults, winning 85% of her first serves and converting 38% of break points. Ruse hit 2 aces and 10 double faults, winning 64% of her first serves and converting 50% of break points; Muchova won 3 service breaks to Ruse's 1.

Key context

  • Match story: Karolina Muchova edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-01-02AucklandR16hardKarolina Muchova6-4 6-1

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
56%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
57%
63%
Return points won·Even
44%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
52%
62%
Aces / match·Even
4.1
3.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.2
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
45
92
Break points saved·Dominant
11
91
Break points won·Slight edge
93
88
Deciding sets·Slight edge
86
97
Tiebreaks·Dominant
18
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Gabriela Ruse E.24%
Muchova K.76%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Muchova K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0+3 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.0Grass Elo 1546
2.4Overall Elo 1717
ELO gap
7.6Overall Elo 1928
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
8.48 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.16 of last 10 on grass
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
92

Gabriela Ruse E.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 25 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
38°CMainly clear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 25%

Draw