Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Otto VirtanenWimbledon Qualifying Final

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Final
#155ATP
1620ELO
1476Grass ELO
$293kYTD
$747kCAREER
19 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLLLWWLL
1 — 3
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
#116ATP
1706ELO
1688Grass ELO
$214kYTD
$1.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLWWWW
Budkov Kjaer N.
6-4 4-6 4-6 5-7
Virtanen O.
Budkov Kjaer N.
64451
Virtanen O.
46673

Otto Virtanen won the Wimbledon final, defeating Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 7-5. Virtanen hit 3 aces and 2 double faults, winning 75% of first-serve points and converting 33% of break points. He broke Kjaer's serve 3 times, compared to Kjaer's 1 break.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
54%
Service points won·Even
63%
66%
Return points won·Even
38%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.9
9.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.5
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
67
11
Break points saved·Even
78
82
Break points won·Dominant
39
1
Deciding sets·Dominant
96
29
Tiebreaks·Dominant
81
10

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Budkov Kjaer N.31%
Virtanen O.69%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Virtanen O. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.9Grass Elo 1487
Surface ELO
6.1+86 Grass Elo edge
4.1Overall Elo 1638
ELO gap
5.9Overall Elo 1712
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
4.64 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.97 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
80
76

Budkov Kjaer N.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d) · Virtanen O.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 52 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
31°CClear
Wind 25 km/hHumidity 50%

Draw