Katarzyna Kawa vs Kayla Day — Wimbledon Qualifying Final

Wimbledon · WTA · Qualifying Final
Katarzyna Kawa
POL14
Katarzyna Kawa
#133WTA
1664ELO
1545Grass ELO
33 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLWLWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
USA32
Kayla Day
#121WTA
1595ELO
1420Grass ELO
26 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLLW
Kawa K.
2-6 5-7
Day K.
Kawa K.
250
Day K.
672

Kayla Day won the Wimbledon final, defeating Katarzyna Kawa 6-2, 7-5. Day served 6 aces to Kawa's 2 and converted 27% of her break points, while Kawa converted none. Day won 73% of her first-serve points to Kawa's 54%, and each player hit 4 double faults.

Key context

  • Match story: Kayla Day closed it out in two sets, 6–2 7–5.

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-05-04W100 Bonita Springs 1R16clayKayla Day6-2 6-2
2023-01-18W60 Vero BeachR32clayKatarzyna Kawa6-3 1-6 7-6(5)

Statistics

This season
Kawa K.Day K.
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
54%
61%
Return points won·Even
48%
47%
Break points saved·Even
55%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.5
3.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.1
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Kawa K.Day K.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
51
39
Break points saved·Dominant
15
66
Break points won·Slight edge
93
88
Deciding sets·Dominant
88
18
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
79
67

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Kawa K.64%
Day K.36%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Kawa K. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kawa K.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Day K.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.3+23 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.7Grass Elo 1488
5.4Overall Elo 1617
ELO gap
4.6Overall Elo 1581
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.56 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
4.84 of last 10 on grass
9.07-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Kawa K.Day K.
Freshness·Clear edge
89
70

Kawa K.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d) · Day K.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 82 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 21 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw