Polina Kudermetova vs Alina CharaevaWimbledon Qualifying Final

Wimbledon · WTA · Qualifying Final
#97WTA
1727ELO
1579Grass ELO
23 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
#113WTA
1694ELO
1557Grass ELO
24 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWLW
Kudermetova P.
4-6 6-4 6-1
Charaeva A.
Kudermetova P.
4662
Charaeva A.
6411

Polina Kudermetova won the Wimbledon final on grass, defeating Alina Charaeva with a score of 4-6, 6-4, 6-1. Kudermetova trailed after the first set but rallied to take the next two sets and secure the victory.

Key context

Head to head

30
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-25WimbledonQ32grassPolina Kudermetova4-6 6-4 6-1
2026-06-07LondonFgrassPolina Kudermetova3-6 6-4 4-6
2026-06-07LondonQ16grassPolina Kudermetova6-3 4-6 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
47%
Service points won·Even
58%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
47%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
60%
Aces / match·Even
3.0
3.2
Double faults / match·Even
4.9
4.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (45 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
51
56
Break points saved·Even
77
75
Break points won·Slight edge
96
85
Deciding sets·Dominant
29
69
Tiebreaks·
33

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Kudermetova P.53%
Charaeva A.47%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0+0 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.0Grass Elo 1505
5.5Overall Elo 1623
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1586
7.0Leads 1–0 on grass
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on grass
5.65 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.36 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
86
85

Kudermetova P.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d) · Charaeva A.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
31°CClear
Wind 24 km/hHumidity 49%

Draw