Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova — Bad Homburg Quarter-final
JPN6
Osaka N.
Naomi Osaka advanced to the semifinals of the Bad Homburg tournament by defeating Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-2, 6-2 in the quarterfinals. Osaka served 7 aces and did not commit a double fault, while converting 67% of her break points and winning 94% of her first-serve points. Alexandrova converted 50% of her break points and was broken 4 times.
Around the match
“I just want to play as many matches as possible before Wimbledon. My coach Tomas helps me a lot to better understand grass. I feel really comfortable now.”
Osaka N.tennisnet.com ↗
Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.
Key context
- Match story: Naomi Osaka dropped just 4 games past Ekaterina Alexandrova.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Osaka N. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Freshness
Recent loadOsaka N.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Alexandrova E.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 60 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About