Eero Vasa vs Ognjen MilicPlovdiv Round of 16

Plovdiv · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#468ATP
1364ELO
1345Clay ELO
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWLWL
1 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
clay
#343ATP
1414ELO
1411Clay ELO
19 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWWWWW
Vasa E.
6-2 1-6 4-6
Milic O.
Vasa E.
6141
Milic O.
2662

Ognjen Milic advanced to the quarterfinals of the Plovdiv tournament with a three-set win over Eero Vasa in the Round of 16. Milic recovered from a set down to take the match 2-6, 6-1, 6-4. The two players converted an equal number of service breaks, four each, but Milic edged Vasa in other key statistical categories to secure the victory.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
63%
51%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
77%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
52%
Service points won·Even
63%
65%
Return points won·Even
37%
38%
Break points saved·Even
64%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.9
6.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.2
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 9). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Vasa E.32%
Milic O.68%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Milic O. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
4.9Clay Elo 1488
Surface ELO
5.1+8 Clay Elo edge
4.4Overall Elo 1466
ELO gap
5.6Overall Elo 1510
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.74 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
98
76

Vasa E.: 10 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Milic O.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 75%

Draw