Tatjana Maria defeated Jasmine Paolini 7-5 6-1 in the Indian Wells round of 128 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jasmine Paolini came in ranked #15, leading the head-to-head 2–1, defending last year's round of 32. Tatjana Maria narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.
| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Eastbourne | R32 | grass | Tatjana Maria | 4-6 3-6 |
| 2024-03-06 | Indian Wells | R64 | hard | Jasmine Paolini | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2024-01-15 | Australian Open | R64 | hard | Jasmine Paolini | 6-2 6-3 |
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Maria T.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 35 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About