Aryna Sabalenka defeated Caroline Garcia 6-4 3-6 7-5 in the Cincinnati round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Caroline Garcia came in leading the head-to-head 5–1, defending last year's round of 64, but Aryna Sabalenka had been the form player, winning 6 of their last 8 on hard. Aryna Sabalenka narrowed the head-to-head to 5–2.
| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-07 | WTA Finals | F | hard | Caroline Garcia | 7-6(4) 6-4 |
| 2022-10-31 | Fort Worth Finals | F | hard | Caroline Garcia | 7-6 6-4 |
| 2022-08-15 | Cincinnati | SF | hard | Caroline Garcia | 6-2 4-6 6-1 |
| 2018-11-02 | Zhuhai | RR | hard | Caroline Garcia | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2018-10-29 | Zhuhai | R16 | hard | Caroline Garcia | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2018-10-01 | Beijing | R16 | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 5-7 7-6 6-0 |
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Sabalenka A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 76 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About